CHN’s Human Needs Watch: Tracking Hardship | “Who Wins, Who Loses?” Edition.
November 15, 2024
The Who Wins? Who Loses? Edition. Exit polls on election day indicated that a majority of people with incomes from $30,000 to $100,000 voted for President-Elect Trump, and that voters choosing Trump were looking for someone who would make “needed change.” Looking at the Trump proposals so far, though, the beneficiaries will be the rich and profitable corporations, not people of modest income. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy analyzed all of the Trump tax proposals, including increased tariffs, and found that only the wealthiest 5 percent would see a tax decrease; everyone else would pay more.
Middle to low-income people will be hit in other ways, too. Millions are now benefiting from affordable health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace insurance plans. People with incomes between 100 – 150 percent of the federal poverty line now pay nothing for insurance premiums; others see their costs reduced through the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit. But that will expire by the end of 2025 if Congress does not act to extend it. Republicans have opposed doing so; if they don’t, people will have to pay hundreds or thousands more per year, and more people will become uninsured.
Elon Musk exemplifies who will win in the new Trump Administration. The stock market believes his close relationship to Trump will result in benefits to his company Tesla; he also stands to gain in military contracts for his Space-X and other products. While he wins, he will create many millions of losers through his perch at the new Department of Government Efficiency – not a real department without Congressional action, but expected to recommend extreme cuts that will threaten public health and safety, cripple civil servants’ capacity to protect against corporate excesses or to collect taxes owed, increase poverty and hardship, and close off the opportunities that education and equitable public investment can provide. He’s the poster child for the rich getting richer, but he won’t be alone.
95% |
The bottom 95 percent of Americans will pay higher taxes as a result of combined Trump tax proposals. The higher taxes come largely as a result of his tariff proposals and plans to end green tax credits. Only the richest 5 percent will see their taxes decline if all the Trump tax proposals are adopted. Tweet this.
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+$790;
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The poorest 20 percent of taxpayers (with incomes up to $28,600) will pay $790 more in taxes in 2026 if the full Trump tax package is enacted. But the richest 1 percent (with incomes $914,900 and up), will see an average tax reduction of $36,320. Tweet this.
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+$1,530 |
Despite Trump claims that he will help working class families, the middle 20 percent (with incomes between $55,000 – $94,000) will pay $1,530 more in taxes in 2026 from the Trump tax proposals, including tariff increases and ending green tax credits. Tweet this.
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22% down
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The corporate tax effective rate (how much they actually pay, taking into account credits or deductions) dropped from 22 percent down to 12.8 percent once the 2017 Trump tax law took effect. The new Trump corporate tax proposals would reduce the actual rate still further – from 22 percent down to 21 percent, and in some cases 15 percent (and still lower, counting deductions and credits). Tweet this.
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↑44%
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While corporate profits rose by 44 percent for the largest corporations after the passage of the 2017 Trump tax law, corporate taxes paid fell by 16 percent. Tweet this.
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More than half |
Another of the 2017 tax cuts was the “pass-through deduction” – allowing higher deductions for businesses paying taxes through the individual income tax. While touted as a help for small businesses, more than half of deductions paid ($31.6b out of $60.3b in total benefits paid in 2024) went to millionaires, who made up just 1 percent of people claiming the deductions.
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+$754; +$1,550; +$2,400 |
During the pandemic, Congress passed the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit to make marketplace Affordable Care Act insurance more affordable. These improvements were extended through 2025, but will expire if Congress does not extend them. Congressional Republicans have opposed them. If they expire, an individual earning $22,000 will have to pay $754 more per year; a couple with $42,000 income will pay $1,550 more per year; and a family of 4 earning $65,000 will pay $2,400 more per year.
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11.2m to 21m |
Largely because of the increased affordability of ACA marketplace health insurance through the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit, enrollment surged from 11.2m in 2021 to 21 million in 2024.
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$1 trillion;
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After the Trump victory, Elon Musk’s Tesla hit $1 trillion in market value (on Nov. 8); amid “growing bets of favorable treatment” shares rose 8 percent to a 2-year high. Musk is seeking federal rather than state by state approval for autonomous vehicles, which will greatly increase profitability. He’d also like to stop the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s potential enforcement actions involving the safety of Tesla’s current driver-assistance systems.
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$2 trillion? |
Musk, who with Vivek Ramaswamy will head a new so-called Department of Government Efficiency, has suggested that the federal government could cut $2 trillion from its annual budget – a cut of about one-third. Anything close to that figure would require slashing programs like Medicaid, SNAP, SSI, the Affordable Care Act, housing, education, transportation, public health, child care, etc., all of which benefit moderate and low-income people.
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